CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Big 12 · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
15.3
Market margin MAE
13.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Cincinnati @ Iowa StateFinal 17–34
Model
pred Iowa State 10.6 · actual Iowa State 17
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Arizona State @ Kansas StateFinal 24–14
Model
pred Kansas State 10.0 · actual Arizona State 10
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ ColoradoFinal 24–49
Model
pred Colorado 6.3 · actual Colorado 25
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ West VirginiaFinal 49–35
Model
pred West Virginia 4.3 · actual Baylor 14
winner West Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Kansas @ BYUFinal 17–13
Model
pred BYU 3.4 · actual Kansas 4
winner BYU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ ArizonaFinal 3–27
Model
pred Arizona 2.8 · actual Arizona 24
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.2 · mkt 23.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.