CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Big 12 · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–433%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
10.6
Market margin MAE
8.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
BYU @ UtahFinal 22–21
Model
pred Utah 4.8 · actual BYU 1
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ Arizona StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred Arizona State 3.9 · actual Arizona State 4
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Oklahoma State @ TCUFinal 13–38
Model
pred TCU 3.7 · actual TCU 25
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
West Virginia @ CincinnatiFinal 31–24
Model
pred Cincinnati 0.6 · actual West Virginia 7
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Colorado @ Texas TechFinal 41–27
Model
pred Texas Tech 0.5 · actual Colorado 14
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ KansasFinal 36–45
Model
pred Iowa State 5.2 · actual Kansas 9
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.