CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCAmerican AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig SkyMVFC
Week 1 backtest · Big 12 · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
15.9
Market margin MAE
14.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico @ ArizonaFinal 39–61
Model
pred Arizona 27.7 · actual Arizona 22
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +29.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 7.0 · closer
North Dakota State @ ColoradoFinal 26–31
Model
pred Colorado 20.7 · actual Colorado 5
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ HoustonFinal 27–7
Model
pred Houston 5.7 · actual UNLV 20
winner Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -2.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 22.3 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Arizona StateFinal 7–48
Model
pred Arizona State 3.7 · actual Arizona State 41
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.3 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ StanfordFinal 34–27
Model
pred TCU 8.7 · actual TCU 7
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ West VirginiaFinal 34–12
Model
pred Penn State 12.9 · actual Penn State 22
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.