CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 9 · 6 games
Navy @ Notre DameNotre Dame 96%
Model
Notre Dame -25.6 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Navy 16.4 · Notre Dame 42.0
Total
proj 58.3
UAB @ South FloridaSouth Florida 95%
Model
South Florida -23.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj UAB 17.4 · South Florida 40.4
Total
proj 57.9
Florida Atlantic @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%
Model
North Texas -20.7 · mkt North Texas —
proj Florida Atlantic 17.3 · North Texas 37.9
Total
proj 55.2
Temple @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 82%
Model
East Carolina -13.2 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Temple 21.3 · East Carolina 34.5
Total
proj 55.8
Army @ MemphisMemphis 77%
Model
Memphis -10.6 · mkt Memphis —
proj Army 19.0 · Memphis 29.6
Total
proj 48.6
Tulane @ CharlotteTulane 96%
Model
Tulane -24.2 · mkt Tulane —
proj Tulane 39.3 · Charlotte 15.1
Total
proj 54.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.