CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 8 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

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Season2026 2025 2024

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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 8 · 5 games

UTSA @ TulaneTulane 67%

Model

Tulane -6.2 · mkt Tulane —

proj UTSA 21.1 · Tulane 27.4

Total

proj 48.5

Rice @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 67%

Model

Florida Atlantic -6.1 · mkt Florida Atlantic —

proj Rice 22.9 · Florida Atlantic 29.0

Total

proj 51.9

East Carolina @ MemphisMemphis 61%

Model

Memphis -4.1 · mkt Memphis —

proj East Carolina 25.6 · Memphis 29.7

Total

proj 55.4

North Texas @ NavyNavy 54%

Model

Navy -1.3 · mkt Navy —

proj North Texas 30.7 · Navy 32.0

Total

proj 62.7

Army @ TulsaArmy 61%

Model

Army -3.8 · mkt Army —

proj Army 28.6 · Tulsa 24.8

Total

proj 53.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.