CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 7 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 7 · 7 games

Kent State @ South FloridaSouth Florida 98%

Model

South Florida -30.8 · mkt South Florida —

proj Kent State 12.1 · South Florida 42.9

Total

proj 54.9

Florida Atlantic @ ArmyArmy 88%

Model

Army -16.5 · mkt Army —

proj Florida Atlantic 17.8 · Army 34.3

Total

proj 52.1

Charlotte @ TempleTemple 84%

Model

Temple -14.2 · mkt Temple —

proj Charlotte 18.7 · Temple 32.9

Total

proj 51.6

Navy @ UTSAUTSA 63%

Model

UTSA -4.8 · mkt UTSA —

proj Navy 26.6 · UTSA 31.4

Total

proj 58.1

Memphis @ TulaneTulane 58%

Model

Tulane -3.0 · mkt Tulane —

proj Memphis 26.5 · Tulane 29.4

Total

proj 55.9

Tulsa @ RiceRice 55%

Model

Rice -1.9 · mkt Rice —

proj Tulsa 26.7 · Rice 28.7

Total

proj 55.4

East Carolina @ UABEast Carolina 87%

Model

East Carolina -16.1 · mkt East Carolina —

proj East Carolina 34.0 · UAB 18.0

Total

proj 52.0

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.