CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 6 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 6 · 7 games

Charlotte @ North TexasNorth Texas 98%

Model

North Texas -29.8 · mkt North Texas —

proj Charlotte 11.5 · North Texas 41.3

Total

proj 52.8

UAB @ MemphisMemphis 91%

Model

Memphis -18.6 · mkt Memphis —

proj UAB 18.3 · Memphis 36.9

Total

proj 55.3

Tulsa @ NavyNavy 90%

Model

Navy -18.5 · mkt Navy —

proj Tulsa 19.7 · Navy 38.2

Total

proj 58.0

Rice @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 90%

Model

East Carolina -18.2 · mkt East Carolina —

proj Rice 16.7 · East Carolina 34.9

Total

proj 51.5

Tulane @ ArmyArmy 53%

Model

Army -1.1 · mkt Army —

proj Tulane 26.3 · Army 27.3

Total

proj 53.6

South Florida @ UTSASouth Florida 55%

Model

South Florida -1.9 · mkt South Florida —

proj South Florida 27.6 · UTSA 25.6

Total

proj 53.2

UConn @ TempleUConn 61%

Model

UConn -3.9 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 30.1 · Temple 26.2

Total

proj 56.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.