CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 5 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 5 · 6 games

Temple @ South FloridaSouth Florida 93%

Model

South Florida -20.5 · mkt South Florida —

proj Temple 17.0 · South Florida 37.5

Total

proj 54.5

Navy @ Air ForceNavy 52%

Model

Navy -0.7 · mkt Navy —

proj Navy 32.5 · Air Force 31.7

Total

proj 64.2

Army @ Louisiana TechArmy 54%

Model

Army -1.5 · mkt Army —

proj Army 26.4 · Louisiana Tech 24.9

Total

proj 51.3

North Texas @ TulsaNorth Texas 89%

Model

North Texas -17.1 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 36.8 · Tulsa 19.7

Total

proj 56.6

UTSA @ RiceUTSA 90%

Model

UTSA -18.5 · mkt UTSA —

proj UTSA 39.2 · Rice 20.8

Total

proj 60.0

Memphis @ CharlotteMemphis 94%

Model

Memphis -22.1 · mkt Memphis —

proj Memphis 35.0 · Charlotte 12.8

Total

proj 47.8

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.