CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 4 · 9 games
Tulsa @ ArkansasArkansas 94%
Model
Arkansas -22.4 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Tulsa 16.6 · Arkansas 39.0
Total
proj 55.6
Colorado State @ UTSAUTSA 86%
Model
UTSA -15.6 · mkt UTSA —
proj Colorado State 18.7 · UTSA 34.3
Total
proj 53.1
Rice @ Fresno StateFresno State 85%
Model
Fresno State -14.8 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Rice 19.3 · Fresno State 34.0
Total
proj 53.3
Southern Miss @ TulaneTulane 81%
Model
Tulane -12.5 · mkt Tulane —
proj Southern Miss 20.1 · Tulane 32.7
Total
proj 52.8
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic 64%
Model
Florida Atlantic -5.2 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida Atlantic 30.4 · UL Monroe 25.2
Total
proj 55.5
Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana 76%
Model
Louisiana -10.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 32.8 · Charlotte 22.7
Total
proj 55.6
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSouth Florida 90%
Model
South Florida -18.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 37.5 · Bowling Green 19.5
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.