CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 3 · 9 games
Temple @ ToledoToledo 87%
Model
Toledo -16.3 · mkt Toledo —
proj Temple 22.0 · Toledo 38.3
Total
proj 60.4
UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana 75%
Model
Louisiana -9.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj UAB 21.3 · Louisiana 30.9
Total
proj 52.2
Charlotte @ App StateApp State 73%
Model
App State -8.7 · mkt App State —
proj Charlotte 23.2 · App State 31.9
Total
proj 55.2
Tulane @ Kansas StateKansas State 69%
Model
Kansas State -7.0 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Tulane 22.5 · Kansas State 29.5
Total
proj 52.0
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 56%
Model
Florida Atlantic -2.3 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida International 26.1 · Florida Atlantic 28.4
Total
proj 54.6
East Carolina @ Old DominionEast Carolina 55%
Model
East Carolina -1.6 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 28.7 · Old Dominion 27.0
Total
proj 55.7
North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas 55%
Model
North Texas -1.9 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 26.8 · Texas State 25.0
Total
proj 51.8
Western Michigan @ RiceWestern Michigan 71%
Model
Western Michigan -7.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.0 · Rice 24.2
Total
proj 56.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.