CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 2 · 12 games
Charlotte @ Ole MissOle Miss 100%
Model
Ole Miss -39.4 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Charlotte 8.0 · Ole Miss 47.3
Total
proj 55.3
Rice @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -36.2 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Rice 13.0 · Notre Dame 49.2
Total
proj 62.2
South Alabama @ TulaneTulane 88%
Model
Tulane -17.1 · mkt Tulane —
proj South Alabama 17.0 · Tulane 34.1
Total
proj 51.0
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina —
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.1
UNLV @ North TexasNorth Texas 71%
Model
North Texas -7.7 · mkt North Texas —
proj UNLV 23.5 · North Texas 31.2
Total
proj 54.6
Memphis @ Boise StateBoise State 59%
Model
Boise State -3.1 · mkt Boise State —
proj Memphis 25.9 · Boise State 29.0
Total
proj 54.9
UTSA @ Texas StateTexas State 54%
Model
Texas State -1.5 · mkt Texas State —
proj UTSA 28.2 · Texas State 29.7
Total
proj 57.8
Tulsa @ Sam HoustonTulsa 64%
Model
Tulsa -5.1 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Tulsa 29.9 · Sam Houston 24.7
Total
proj 54.6
South Florida @ ArmySouth Florida 68%
Model
South Florida -6.6 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 27.9 · Army 21.3
Total
proj 49.1
Navy @ Florida AtlanticNavy 71%
Model
Navy -7.7 · mkt Navy —
proj Navy 32.6 · Florida Atlantic 24.8
Total
proj 57.4
Penn State @ TemplePenn State 96%
Model
Penn State -24.3 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 41.9 · Temple 17.5
Total
proj 59.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.