CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

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Season2026 2025 2024

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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 13 · 7 games

UAB @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%

Model

North Texas -20.5 · mkt North Texas —

proj UAB 16.7 · North Texas 37.2

Total

proj 53.9

Tulsa @ UTSAUTSA 90%

Model

UTSA -18.2 · mkt UTSA —

proj Tulsa 18.1 · UTSA 36.4

Total

proj 54.5

Florida Atlantic @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 89%

Model

East Carolina -17.7 · mkt East Carolina —

proj Florida Atlantic 19.1 · East Carolina 36.8

Total

proj 55.9

Temple @ MemphisMemphis 84%

Model

Memphis -14.0 · mkt Memphis —

proj Temple 19.0 · Memphis 33.0

Total

proj 51.9

Tulane @ South FloridaSouth Florida 74%

Model

South Florida -9.0 · mkt South Florida —

proj Tulane 23.4 · South Florida 32.4

Total

proj 55.8

Army @ RiceArmy 72%

Model

Army -8.2 · mkt Army —

proj Army 32.0 · Rice 23.7

Total

proj 55.7

Navy @ CharlotteNavy 93%

Model

Navy -20.6 · mkt Navy —

proj Navy 37.8 · Charlotte 17.2

Total

proj 54.9

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.