CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 12 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 12 · 7 games

Charlotte @ TulsaTulsa 74%

Model

Tulsa -8.9 · mkt Tulsa —

proj Charlotte 23.0 · Tulsa 31.9

Total

proj 54.8

Memphis @ NavyNavy 71%

Model

Navy -8.0 · mkt Navy —

proj Memphis 24.9 · Navy 32.9

Total

proj 57.7

Rice @ TempleTemple 68%

Model

Temple -6.5 · mkt Temple —

proj Rice 23.9 · Temple 30.4

Total

proj 54.2

East Carolina @ ArmyArmy 51%

Model

Army -0.4 · mkt Army —

proj East Carolina 25.5 · Army 25.9

Total

proj 51.3

North Texas @ TulaneNorth Texas 57%

Model

North Texas -2.4 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 28.2 · Tulane 25.9

Total

proj 54.1

UTSA @ UABUTSA 79%

Model

UTSA -11.3 · mkt UTSA —

proj UTSA 33.9 · UAB 22.6

Total

proj 56.5

South Florida @ Florida AtlanticSouth Florida 87%

Model

South Florida -15.8 · mkt South Florida —

proj South Florida 36.9 · Florida Atlantic 21.1

Total

proj 57.9

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.