CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 11 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 11 · 6 games

Memphis @ South FloridaSouth Florida 72%

Model

South Florida -8.3 · mkt South Florida —

proj Memphis 23.5 · South Florida 31.8

Total

proj 55.3

UAB @ TempleTemple 70%

Model

Temple -7.3 · mkt Temple —

proj UAB 24.0 · Temple 31.3

Total

proj 55.3

Florida Atlantic @ TulsaTulsa 61%

Model

Tulsa -3.8 · mkt Tulsa —

proj Florida Atlantic 26.2 · Tulsa 30.0

Total

proj 56.2

North Texas @ UTSANorth Texas 58%

Model

North Texas -2.7 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 27.6 · UTSA 24.9

Total

proj 52.5

Tulane @ RiceTulane 87%

Model

Tulane -16.2 · mkt Tulane —

proj Tulane 35.0 · Rice 18.8

Total

proj 53.8

East Carolina @ CharlotteEast Carolina 93%

Model

East Carolina -20.8 · mkt East Carolina —

proj East Carolina 36.0 · Charlotte 15.1

Total

proj 51.1

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.