CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 10 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 10 · 7 games

Rice @ North TexasNorth Texas 91%

Model

North Texas -19.5 · mkt North Texas —

proj Rice 17.9 · North Texas 37.4

Total

proj 55.3

Tulsa @ TulaneTulane 91%

Model

Tulane -19.3 · mkt Tulane —

proj Tulsa 16.8 · Tulane 36.1

Total

proj 53.0

Temple @ NavyNavy 85%

Model

Navy -14.7 · mkt Navy —

proj Temple 21.5 · Navy 36.1

Total

proj 57.6

Air Force @ ArmyArmy 81%

Model

Army -12.3 · mkt Army —

proj Air Force 21.0 · Army 33.4

Total

proj 54.4

Charlotte @ UABUAB 66%

Model

UAB -5.9 · mkt UAB —

proj Charlotte 23.6 · UAB 29.5

Total

proj 53.1

South Florida @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 56%

Model

East Carolina -2.2 · mkt East Carolina —

proj South Florida 27.5 · East Carolina 29.7

Total

proj 57.3

UTSA @ Florida AtlanticUTSA 67%

Model

UTSA -6.3 · mkt UTSA —

proj UTSA 32.8 · Florida Atlantic 26.5

Total

proj 59.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.