CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
North Texas @ Indiana18.7 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -21.3 · mkt Indiana ~-40.0
LeanNorth Texas +40.0
Best priceNorth Texas +40.5 -110best of 7
WinIndiana 93%
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa13.8 pt gap
Model vs mktTulsa -0.8 · mkt Tulsa ~+13.0
LeanTulsa +13.0
Best priceTulsa +13.5 -115best of 7
WinTulsa 52%
East Carolina @ Alabama11.7 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -14.3 · mkt Alabama ~-26.0
LeanEast Carolina +26.0
Best priceEast Carolina +26.5 -108best of 7
WinAlabama 84%
Florida International @ South Florida9.9 pt gap
Model vs mktSouth Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida ~-12.0
LeanSouth Florida -12.0
Best priceSouth Florida -11.5 -110best of 7
WinSouth Florida 94%
Tulane @ Duke6.5 pt gap
Model vs mktDuke -3.5 · mkt Duke ~-10.0
LeanTulane +10.0
Best priceTulane +10.5 -105best of 7
WinDuke 60%
Florida Atlantic @ Florida5.4 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida -31.7 · mkt Florida ~-26.3
LeanFlorida -26.3
Best priceFlorida -26 -106best of 7
WinFlorida 99%
UAB @ Illinois1.5 pt gap
Model vs mktIllinois -26.0 · mkt Illinois ~-27.5
LeanUAB +27.5
Best priceUAB +27.5 -108best of 6
WinIllinois 97%
Memphis @ UNLV1.4 pt gap
Model vs mktUNLV -1.9 · mkt UNLV ~-3.3
LeanMemphis +3.3
Best priceMemphis +3.5 -105best of 7
WinUNLV 55%
Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 1 · 9 games
North Texas @ IndianaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.3 · mkt Indiana ~-40.0
proj North Texas 16.1 · Indiana 37.4
leans North Texas +40.0
◆ Mid 1
Indiana -39.5 -115FanDuel
North Texas +40.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma State @ TulsaTulsa 52%
Model
Tulsa -0.8 · mkt Tulsa ~+13.0
proj Oklahoma State 28.5 · Tulsa 29.3
leans Tulsa +13.0
◆ Mid 1
Tulsa +13.5 -115FanDuel
Oklahoma State -12.5 -112DraftKings
East Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 84%
Model
Alabama -14.3 · mkt Alabama ~-26.0
proj East Carolina 18.8 · Alabama 33.1
leans East Carolina +26.0
◆ Mid 1
Alabama -25.5 -115FanDuel
East Carolina +26.5 -108DraftKings
Florida International @ South FloridaSouth Florida 94%
Model
South Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida ~-12.0
proj Florida International 16.1 · South Florida 38.0
leans South Florida -12.0
◆ Mid 1
South Florida -11.5 -110FanDuel
Florida International +12.5 -108DraftKings
Tulane @ DukeDuke 60%
Model
Duke -3.5 · mkt Duke ~-10.0
proj Tulane 26.0 · Duke 29.4
leans Tulane +10.0
◆ Mid 1
Duke -9.5 -105DraftKings
Tulane +10.5 -105FanDuel
Florida Atlantic @ FloridaFlorida 99%
Model
Florida -31.7 · mkt Florida ~-26.3
proj Florida Atlantic 12.8 · Florida 44.5
leans Florida -26.3
◆ Mid 0.5
Florida -26 -106LowVig
Florida Atlantic +26.5 -108DraftKings
UAB @ IllinoisIllinois 97%
Model
Illinois -26.0 · mkt Illinois ~-27.5
proj UAB 12.9 · Illinois 38.8
leans UAB +27.5
◆ Mid 0
Illinois -27.5 -112DraftKings
UAB +27.5 -108DraftKings
Memphis @ UNLVUNLV 55%
Model
UNLV -1.9 · mkt UNLV ~-3.3
proj Memphis 25.8 · UNLV 27.7
leans Memphis +3.3
◆ Mid 0.5
UNLV -3 -118DraftKings
Memphis +3.5 -105FanDuel
Arkansas State @ MemphisMemphis 76%
Model
Memphis -9.9 · mkt Memphis ~-10.5
proj Arkansas State 20.7 · Memphis 30.6
leans Arkansas State +10.5
◆ Mid 0
Memphis -10.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas State +10.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.