CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 9 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · American Athletic · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–180%
ATS vs close
1–420%
Model margin MAE
11.3
Market margin MAE
7.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida Atlantic @ NavyFinal 32–42
Model
pred Navy 25.1 · actual Navy 10
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ MemphisFinal 31–34
Model
pred Memphis 3.1 · actual Memphis 3
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
UConn @ RiceFinal 34–37
Model
pred UConn 10.1 · actual Rice 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Temple @ TulsaFinal 38–37
Model
pred Temple 11.0 · actual Temple 1
winner Temple ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ CharlotteFinal 54–20
Model
pred North Texas 15.8 · actual North Texas 34
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.