CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 7 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · American Athletic · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
0–5 · 1P0%
Model margin MAE
19.1
Market margin MAE
15.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ ArmyFinal 7–24
Model
pred Army 20.5 · actual Army 17
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ UTSAFinal 13–61
Model
pred UTSA 7.9 · actual UTSA 48
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 40.1 · mkt 38.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ North TexasFinal 63–36
Model
pred North Texas 7.3 · actual South Florida 27
winner North Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Texas -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.3 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ TulaneFinal 19–26
Model
pred Tulane 3.6 · actual Tulane 7
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +7.0Push
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
UAB @ Florida AtlanticFinal 33–53
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 0.1 · actual Florida Atlantic 20
winner Florida Atlantic ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.9 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Navy @ TempleFinal 32–31
Model
pred Navy 14.4 · actual Navy 1
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.