CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 5 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · American Athletic · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
3–260%
Model margin MAE
8.8
Market margin MAE
8.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Rice @ NavyFinal 13–21
Model
pred Navy 19.0 · actual Navy 8
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ North TexasFinal 22–36
Model
pred North Texas 13.3 · actual North Texas 14
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Texas -13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.0 · closer
Army @ East CarolinaFinal 6–28
Model
pred East Carolina 7.4 · actual East Carolina 22
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Tulane @ TulsaFinal 31–14
Model
pred Tulane 10.5 · actual Tulane 17
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ Florida AtlanticFinal 55–26
Model
pred Memphis 17.6 · actual Memphis 29
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 15.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.