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2025 · Week 4 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · American Athletic · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–278%
ATS vs close
8–189%
Model margin MAE
6.8
Market margin MAE
10.1
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UAB @ TennesseeFinal 24–56
Model
pred Tennessee 28.6 · actual Tennessee 32
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +39.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Tulane @ Ole MissFinal 10–45
Model
pred Ole Miss 15.2 · actual Ole Miss 35
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.8 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Temple @ Georgia TechFinal 24–45
Model
pred Georgia Tech 14.9 · actual Georgia Tech 21
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ Oklahoma StateFinal 19–12
Model
pred Oklahoma State 5.2 · actual Tulsa 7
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.2 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Arkansas @ MemphisFinal 31–32
Model
pred Arkansas 0.1 · actual Memphis 1
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
North Texas @ ArmyFinal 45–38
Model
pred North Texas 2.3 · actual North Texas 7
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UTSA @ Colorado StateFinal 17–16
Model
pred UTSA 4.0 · actual UTSA 1
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Rice @ CharlotteFinal 28–17
Model
pred Rice 7.9 · actual Rice 11
winner Rice ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 9.5 · closer
BYU @ East CarolinaFinal 34–13
Model
pred BYU 12.8 · actual BYU 21
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.