CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · American Athletic · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–278%
ATS vs close
4–544%
Model margin MAE
22.6
Market margin MAE
17.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Akron @ UABFinal 28–31
Model
pred UAB 21.5 · actual UAB 3
winner UAB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ TulaneFinal 27–34
Model
pred Tulane 13.3 · actual Tulane 7
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ MiamiFinal 12–49
Model
pred Miami 6.1 · actual Miami 37
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ Florida InternationalFinal 28–38
Model
pred Florida International 3.9 · actual Florida International 10
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Oklahoma @ TempleFinal 42–3
Model
pred Temple 0.7 · actual Oklahoma 39
winner Temple ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ North TexasFinal 10–59
Model
pred Washington State 5.6 · actual North Texas 49
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 54.6 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 38–0
Model
pred East Carolina 5.9 · actual East Carolina 38
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.1 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
Memphis @ TroyFinal 28–7
Model
pred Memphis 10.0 · actual Memphis 21
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Navy @ TulsaFinal 42–23
Model
pred Navy 14.7 · actual Navy 19
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.