CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · American Athletic · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–550%
ATS vs close
7–370%
Model margin MAE
11.0
Market margin MAE
11.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
South Florida @ FloridaFinal 18–16
Model
pred Florida 16.2 · actual South Florida 2
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Army @ Kansas StateFinal 24–21
Model
pred Kansas State 10.5 · actual Army 3
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Army +16.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 19.8 · closer
UAB @ NavyFinal 24–38
Model
pred Navy 8.9 · actual Navy 14
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 7.5 · closer
North Texas @ Western MichiganFinal 33–30
Model
pred Western Michigan 8.8 · actual North Texas 3
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +12.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 9.3 · mkt closer
Tulane @ South AlabamaFinal 33–31
Model
pred South Alabama 2.8 · actual Tulane 2
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Tulsa @ New Mexico StateFinal 14–21
Model
pred Tulsa 0.1 · actual New Mexico State 7
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +3.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 10.3 · closer
North Carolina @ CharlotteFinal 20–3
Model
pred North Carolina 3.3 · actual North Carolina 17
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +15.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 1.2 · mkt closer
Houston @ RiceFinal 35–9
Model
pred Houston 4.7 · actual Houston 26
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ UTSAFinal 43–36
Model
pred Texas State 8.8 · actual Texas State 7
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Memphis @ Georgia StateFinal 38–16
Model
pred Memphis 9.7 · actual Memphis 22
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.