CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 15 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · American Athletic · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
14.1
Market margin MAE
14.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
North Texas @ TulaneFinal 21–34
Model
pred North Texas 1.1 · actual Tulane 13
winner North Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.