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2025 · Week 14 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · American Athletic · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–357%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
15.0
Market margin MAE
15.1
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ TulaneFinal 0–27
Model
pred Tulane 23.7 · actual Tulane 27
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Rice @ South FloridaFinal 3–52
Model
pred South Florida 20.1 · actual South Florida 49
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.9 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ North TexasFinal 25–52
Model
pred North Texas 15.6 · actual North Texas 27
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Navy @ MemphisFinal 28–17
Model
pred Memphis 6.8 · actual Navy 11
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ TulsaFinal 31–24
Model
pred Tulsa 3.2 · actual UAB 7
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Army @ UTSAFinal 27–24
Model
pred UTSA 0.6 · actual Army 3
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Army +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 11.5 · closer
East Carolina @ Florida AtlanticFinal 42–3
Model
pred East Carolina 9.5 · actual East Carolina 39
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.5 · mkt 32.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.