CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · American Athletic · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
9.2
Market margin MAE
8.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida Atlantic @ TulaneFinal 24–35
Model
pred Tulane 12.0 · actual Tulane 11
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Memphis @ East CarolinaFinal 27–31
Model
pred East Carolina 4.9 · actual East Carolina 4
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 1.0 · closer
South Florida @ NavyFinal 38–41
Model
pred Navy 1.0 · actual Navy 3
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Oregon State @ TulsaFinal 14–31
Model
pred Tulsa 0.5 · actual Tulsa 17
winner Tulsa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ UABFinal 53–24
Model
pred North Texas 1.3 · actual North Texas 29
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
UTSA @ CharlotteFinal 28–7
Model
pred UTSA 13.8 · actual UTSA 21
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.