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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 11 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · American Athletic · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
12.2
Market margin MAE
9.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Navy @ Notre DameFinal 10–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 30.4 · actual Notre Dame 39
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +30.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Charlotte @ East CarolinaFinal 22–48
Model
pred East Carolina 20.2 · actual East Carolina 26
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +28.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Temple @ ArmyFinal 13–14
Model
pred Army 14.8 · actual Army 1
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.8 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Tulane @ MemphisFinal 38–32
Model
pred Memphis 8.7 · actual Tulane 6
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
UTSA @ South FloridaFinal 23–55
Model
pred South Florida 7.3 · actual South Florida 32
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
UAB @ RiceFinal 17–24
Model
pred Rice 4.9 · actual Rice 7
winner Rice ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Tulsa @ Florida AtlanticFinal 21–40
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 3.0 · actual Florida Atlantic 19
winner Florida Atlantic ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.0 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.