CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 1 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 1 backtest · American Athletic · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–363%
ATS vs close
5–271%
Model margin MAE
15.1
Market margin MAE
16.5
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTSA @ Texas A&MFinal 24–42
Model
pred Texas A&M 20.3 · actual Texas A&M 18
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Florida Atlantic @ MarylandFinal 7–39
Model
pred Maryland 13.5 · actual Maryland 32
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 18.5 · tie
East Carolina @ NC StateFinal 17–24
Model
pred NC State 12.9 · actual NC State 7
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Northwestern @ TulaneFinal 3–23
Model
pred Tulane 11.5 · actual Tulane 20
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Rice @ LouisianaFinal 14–12
Model
pred Louisiana 1.7 · actual Rice 2
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Temple @ MassachusettsFinal 42–10
Model
pred Massachusetts 0.8 · actual Temple 32
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.8 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ South FloridaFinal 7–34
Model
pred Boise State 2.6 · actual South Florida 27
winner Boise State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.6 · mkt 32.5 · closer
App State @ CharlotteFinal 34–11
Model
pred App State 3.5 · actual App State 23
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.5 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.