CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 7 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · American Athletic · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–0100%
ATS vs close
3–175%
Model margin MAE
7.2
Market margin MAE
5.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UAB @ ArmyFinal 10–44
Model
pred Army 15.5 · actual Army 34
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +27.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
UTSA @ RiceFinal 27–29
Model
pred Rice 2.5 · actual Rice 2
winner Rice ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
North Texas @ Florida AtlanticFinal 41–37
Model
pred North Texas 0.5 · actual North Texas 4
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ South FloridaFinal 21–3
Model
pred Memphis 11.9 · actual Memphis 18
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.