CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 4 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · American Athletic · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–460%
ATS vs close
6–460%
Model margin MAE
14.1
Market margin MAE
15.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ IndianaFinal 14–52
Model
pred Indiana 23.9 · actual Indiana 38
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ ArmyFinal 14–37
Model
pred Army 21.1 · actual Army 23
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 15.5 · closer
East Carolina @ LibertyFinal 24–35
Model
pred Liberty 13.0 · actual Liberty 11
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Tulane @ LouisianaFinal 41–33
Model
pred Louisiana 11.7 · actual Tulane 8
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ North TexasFinal 17–44
Model
pred North Texas 6.1 · actual North Texas 27
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ Louisiana TechFinal 23–20
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 1.5 · actual Tulsa 3
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Utah State @ TempleFinal 29–45
Model
pred Temple 1.4 · actual Temple 16
winner Temple ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Memphis @ NavyFinal 44–56
Model
pred Navy 0.0 · actual Navy 12
winner Navy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Florida Atlantic @ UConnFinal 14–48
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 6.6 · actual UConn 34
winner Florida Atlantic ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 40.6 · mkt 33.0 · mkt closer
Miami @ South FloridaFinal 50–15
Model
pred Miami 24.2 · actual Miami 35
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.8 · mkt 18.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.