CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · American Athletic · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–373%
ATS vs close
6–555%
Model margin MAE
14.9
Market margin MAE
14.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTSA @ TexasFinal 7–56
Model
pred Texas 30.4 · actual Texas 49
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +35.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Tulane @ OklahomaFinal 19–34
Model
pred Oklahoma 23.2 · actual Oklahoma 15
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ Texas TechFinal 21–66
Model
pred Texas Tech 16.9 · actual Texas Tech 45
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.1 · mkt 34.5 · closer
UAB @ ArkansasFinal 27–37
Model
pred Arkansas 12.6 · actual Arkansas 10
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 13.5 · closer
App State @ East CarolinaFinal 21–19
Model
pred East Carolina 8.9 · actual App State 2
winner East Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ HoustonFinal 7–33
Model
pred Houston 6.9 · actual Houston 26
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Memphis @ Florida StateFinal 20–12
Model
pred Florida State 6.3 · actual Memphis 8
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFinal 20–38
Model
pred Florida International 0.9 · actual Florida Atlantic 18
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ Southern MissFinal 49–24
Model
pred South Florida 10.8 · actual South Florida 25
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ TulsaFinal 45–10
Model
pred Oklahoma State 14.1 · actual Oklahoma State 35
winner Oklahoma State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ TempleFinal 28–20
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 16.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 8
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 9.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.