CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · American Athletic · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–370%
ATS vs close
4–640%
Model margin MAE
15.2
Market margin MAE
13.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
South Florida @ AlabamaFinal 16–42
Model
pred Alabama 30.5 · actual Alabama 26
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Charlotte @ North CarolinaFinal 20–38
Model
pred North Carolina 27.5 · actual North Carolina 18
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ NavyFinal 11–38
Model
pred Navy 11.1 · actual Navy 27
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 8.0 · actual Arkansas State 4
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Troy @ MemphisFinal 17–38
Model
pred Memphis 7.9 · actual Memphis 21
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Army @ Florida AtlanticFinal 24–7
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 2.0 · actual Army 17
winner Florida Atlantic ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ Old DominionFinal 20–14
Model
pred East Carolina 2.7 · actual East Carolina 6
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
UTSA @ Texas StateFinal 10–49
Model
pred UTSA 4.1 · actual Texas State 39
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 43.1 · mkt 36.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ TulaneFinal 34–27
Model
pred Kansas State 8.5 · actual Kansas State 7
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 2.0 · closer
UAB @ UL MonroeFinal 6–32
Model
pred UAB 12.0 · actual UL Monroe 26
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.0 · mkt 37.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.