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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 14 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · American Athletic · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–529%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
14.9
Market margin MAE
15.2
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTSA @ ArmyFinal 24–29
Model
pred Army 9.2 · actual Army 5
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ TulaneFinal 34–24
Model
pred Tulane 3.4 · actual Memphis 10
winner Tulane ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Navy @ East CarolinaFinal 34–20
Model
pred East Carolina 2.7 · actual Navy 14
winner East Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +2.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 16.8 · closer
Florida Atlantic @ TulsaFinal 63–16
Model
pred Tulsa 0.2 · actual Florida Atlantic 47
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 47.2 · mkt 48.0 · closer
UAB @ CharlotteFinal 27–29
Model
pred UAB 2.9 · actual Charlotte 2
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
North Texas @ TempleFinal 24–17
Model
pred North Texas 8.4 · actual North Texas 7
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
South Florida @ RiceFinal 28–35
Model
pred South Florida 9.3 · actual Rice 7
winner South Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.