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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 10 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · American Athletic · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
19.3
Market margin MAE
19.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Air Force @ ArmyFinal 3–20
Model
pred Army 19.2 · actual Army 17
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Navy @ RiceFinal 10–24
Model
pred Navy 0.8 · actual Rice 14
winner Navy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 26.5 · closer
South Florida @ Florida AtlanticFinal 44–21
Model
pred South Florida 1.7 · actual South Florida 23
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Tulsa @ UABFinal 21–59
Model
pred Tulsa 6.6 · actual UAB 38
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.6 · mkt 35.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ UTSAFinal 36–44
Model
pred Memphis 7.3 · actual UTSA 8
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Tulane @ CharlotteFinal 34–3
Model
pred Tulane 13.1 · actual Tulane 31
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.