CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · American Athletic · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · American Athletic · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
15.4
Market margin MAE
14.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Temple @ OklahomaFinal 3–51
Model
pred Oklahoma 39.3 · actual Oklahoma 48
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +43.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ UTSAFinal 16–28
Model
pred UTSA 27.1 · actual UTSA 12
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA -24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
North Texas @ South AlabamaFinal 52–38
Model
pred South Alabama 12.3 · actual North Texas 14
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.3 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan StateFinal 10–16
Model
pred Michigan State 11.2 · actual Michigan State 6
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Sam Houston @ RiceFinal 34–14
Model
pred Rice 8.9 · actual Sam Houston 20
winner Rice ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.9 · mkt 29.5 · closer
James Madison @ CharlotteFinal 30–7
Model
pred James Madison 15.1 · actual James Madison 23
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 16.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.