CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — ACC · Week 9 · 8 games
Stanford @ LouisvilleLouisville 84%
Model
Louisville -14.2 · mkt Louisville —
proj Stanford 19.7 · Louisville 33.9
Total
proj 53.5
Boston College @ DukeDuke 77%
Model
Duke -10.7 · mkt Duke —
proj Boston College 21.8 · Duke 32.5
Total
proj 54.3
California @ NC StateNC State 74%
Model
NC State -9.3 · mkt NC State —
proj California 24.3 · NC State 33.6
Total
proj 57.9
Georgia Tech @ PittsburghPittsburgh 55%
Model
Pittsburgh -1.6 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Georgia Tech 27.4 · Pittsburgh 29.1
Total
proj 56.5
Clemson @ Florida StateFlorida State 52%
Model
Florida State -0.6 · mkt Florida State —
proj Clemson 28.2 · Florida State 28.8
Total
proj 56.9
Virginia @ Wake ForestVirginia 56%
Model
Virginia -2.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.0 · Wake Forest 26.8
Total
proj 55.9
Miami @ North CarolinaMiami 94%
Model
Miami -21.8 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 36.9 · North Carolina 15.1
Total
proj 52.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.