CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — ACC · Week 7 · 7 games
Florida State @ MiamiMiami 87%
Model
Miami -16.0 · mkt Miami —
proj Florida State 20.0 · Miami 36.1
Total
proj 56.1
North Carolina @ DukeDuke 77%
Model
Duke -10.6 · mkt Duke —
proj North Carolina 23.7 · Duke 34.3
Total
proj 57.9
Wake Forest @ CaliforniaCalifornia 62%
Model
California -4.4 · mkt California —
proj Wake Forest 25.8 · California 30.1
Total
proj 55.9
Pittsburgh @ Boston CollegePittsburgh 70%
Model
Pittsburgh -7.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 32.8 · Boston College 25.3
Total
proj 58.1
Georgia Tech @ Virginia TechGeorgia Tech 75%
Model
Georgia Tech -9.4 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 31.9 · Virginia Tech 22.5
Total
proj 54.3
Louisville @ SyracuseLouisville 82%
Model
Louisville -12.8 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 35.9 · Syracuse 23.1
Total
proj 59.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.