CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — ACC · Week 6 · 7 games
Stanford @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -31.0 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Stanford 12.8 · Notre Dame 43.8
Total
proj 56.6
Syracuse @ VirginiaVirginia 86%
Model
Virginia -15.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj Syracuse 21.4 · Virginia 36.6
Total
proj 58.0
North Carolina @ PittsburghPittsburgh 81%
Model
Pittsburgh -12.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj North Carolina 20.9 · Pittsburgh 33.4
Total
proj 54.2
Duke @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 70%
Model
Georgia Tech -7.5 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Duke 21.9 · Georgia Tech 29.4
Total
proj 51.3
Wake Forest @ NC StateNC State 67%
Model
NC State -6.1 · mkt NC State —
proj Wake Forest 24.4 · NC State 30.5
Total
proj 54.9
Florida State @ LouisvilleLouisville 65%
Model
Louisville -5.6 · mkt Louisville —
proj Florida State 24.2 · Louisville 29.8
Total
proj 54.1
Virginia Tech @ CaliforniaCalifornia 61%
Model
California -4.0 · mkt California —
proj Virginia Tech 26.2 · California 30.2
Total
proj 56.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.