CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Miami @ Clemson0.6 pt gap
Model vs mktMiami -7.3 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
LeanMiami -6.7
Best priceMiami -6.5 -110best of 2
WinMiami 70%
Notre Dame @ North Carolina0.3 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -23.2 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
LeanNorth Carolina +23.5
Best priceNorth Carolina +23.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 95%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 5 · 9 games
Miami @ ClemsonMiami 70%
Model
Miami -7.3 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
proj Miami 30.6 · Clemson 23.3
leans Miami -6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Clemson +7 -110DraftKings
Miami -6.5 -110BetMGM
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaNotre Dame 95%
Model
Notre Dame -23.2 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
proj Notre Dame 39.1 · North Carolina 16.0
leans North Carolina +23.5
◆ Mid 0
North Carolina +23.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -23.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College @ SMUSMU 90%
Model
SMU -18.1 · mkt SMU —
proj Boston College 16.3 · SMU 34.4
Total
proj 50.8
Stanford @ Wake ForestWake Forest 71%
Model
Wake Forest -7.9 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Stanford 24.5 · Wake Forest 32.4
Total
proj 56.8
Virginia @ Florida StateFlorida State 64%
Model
Florida State -5.2 · mkt Florida State —
proj Virginia 24.6 · Florida State 29.8
Total
proj 54.5
Louisville @ NC StateLouisville 51%
Model
Louisville -0.3 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 27.4 · NC State 27.0
Total
proj 54.4
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechPittsburgh 62%
Model
Pittsburgh -4.4 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 31.2 · Virginia Tech 26.8
Total
proj 57.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.