CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — ACC · Week 4 · 8 games
Central Michigan @ MiamiMiami 100%
Model
Miami -38.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Central Michigan 7.9 · Miami 46.6
Total
proj 54.4
Missouri State @ SMUSMU 98%
Model
SMU -28.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Missouri State 13.5 · SMU 42.1
Total
proj 55.7
Delaware @ VirginiaVirginia 98%
Model
Virginia -27.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj Delaware 11.5 · Virginia 39.4
Total
proj 50.9
App State @ NC StateNC State 85%
Model
NC State -14.9 · mkt NC State —
proj App State 20.2 · NC State 35.2
Total
proj 55.4
Wake Forest @ LouisvilleLouisville 78%
Model
Louisville -10.9 · mkt Louisville —
proj Wake Forest 21.3 · Louisville 32.3
Total
proj 53.6
Virginia Tech @ Boston CollegeBoston College 53%
Model
Boston College -1.2 · mkt Boston College —
proj Virginia Tech 28.1 · Boston College 29.3
Total
proj 57.5
Georgia Tech @ StanfordGeorgia Tech 74%
Model
Georgia Tech -8.9 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 31.8 · Stanford 22.8
Total
proj 54.6
Clemson @ CaliforniaClemson 79%
Model
Clemson -11.4 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 33.5 · California 22.1
Total
proj 55.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.