CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
SMU @ Louisville1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktLouisville -2.8 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
LeanLouisville -1.5
Best priceLouisville -1.5 -110best of 1
WinLouisville 58%
Florida State @ Alabama0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
LeanAlabama -15.5
Best priceAlabama -15.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 86%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 3 · 9 games
SMU @ LouisvilleLouisville 58%
Model
Louisville -2.8 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
proj SMU 27.3 · Louisville 30.1
leans Louisville -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Louisville -1.5 -110DraftKings
SMU +1.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
proj Florida State 19.4 · Alabama 35.0
leans Alabama -15.5
◆ Mid 0
Alabama -15.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State +15.5 -110DraftKings
North Carolina @ ClemsonClemson 91%
Model
Clemson -19.0 · mkt Clemson —
proj North Carolina 18.1 · Clemson 37.1
Total
proj 55.2
Syracuse @ PittsburghPittsburgh 84%
Model
Pittsburgh -14.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Syracuse 21.9 · Pittsburgh 36.1
Total
proj 57.9
NC State @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -10.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj NC State 20.3 · Vanderbilt 31.1
Total
proj 51.4
Virginia Tech @ MarylandMaryland 65%
Model
Maryland -5.6 · mkt Maryland —
proj Virginia Tech 27.2 · Maryland 32.8
Total
proj 59.9
Virginia @ West VirginiaVirginia 65%
Model
Virginia -5.6 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.3 · West Virginia 23.7
Total
proj 53.0
Miami @ Wake ForestMiami 88%
Model
Miami -16.4 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 35.8 · Wake Forest 19.5
Total
proj 55.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.