CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
Full Slate ACC · Week 13 · 11 games
Model
Miami -29.4 · mkt Miami
proj Boston College 11.0 · Miami 40.4
Total
proj 51.3
Model
Georgia -18.2 · mkt Georgia
proj Georgia Tech 16.9 · Georgia 35.1
Total
proj 52.0
Model
Clemson -5.6 · mkt Clemson
proj South Carolina 25.3 · Clemson 30.9
Total
proj 56.2
Florida @ Florida StateFlorida State 57%
Model
Florida State -2.5 · mkt Florida State
proj Florida 26.1 · Florida State 28.6
Total
proj 54.7
Model
Kentucky -0.9 · mkt Kentucky
proj Louisville 27.3 · Kentucky 28.2
Total
proj 55.5
Model
Duke -1.3 · mkt Duke
proj Duke 27.2 · Wake Forest 25.9
Total
proj 53.1
Model
Pittsburgh -1.5 · mkt Pittsburgh
proj Pittsburgh 27.4 · California 25.8
Total
proj 53.2
Model
NC State -3.5 · mkt NC State
proj NC State 25.6 · North Carolina 22.1
Total
proj 47.7
Model
Virginia -3.9 · mkt Virginia
proj Virginia 31.0 · Virginia Tech 27.1
Total
proj 58.1
Model
SMU -12.8 · mkt SMU
proj SMU 35.7 · Stanford 22.9
Total
proj 58.6
Notre Dame @ SyracuseNotre Dame 96%
Model
Notre Dame -25.4 · mkt Notre Dame
proj Notre Dame 32.2 · Syracuse 6.8
Total
proj 39.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.