CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — ACC · Week 12 · 9 games
Virginia Tech @ MiamiMiami 93%
Model
Miami -21.0 · mkt Miami —
proj Virginia Tech 17.3 · Miami 38.4
Total
proj 55.7
SMU @ Notre DameNotre Dame 83%
Model
Notre Dame -13.8 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj SMU 21.5 · Notre Dame 35.2
Total
proj 56.7
North Carolina @ VirginiaVirginia 81%
Model
Virginia -12.4 · mkt Virginia —
proj North Carolina 20.5 · Virginia 32.9
Total
proj 53.4
NC State @ Florida StateFlorida State 72%
Model
Florida State -8.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj NC State 19.5 · Florida State 27.9
Total
proj 47.4
Syracuse @ Boston CollegeBoston College 71%
Model
Boston College -8.0 · mkt Boston College —
proj Syracuse 25.3 · Boston College 33.3
Total
proj 58.6
Wake Forest @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 68%
Model
Georgia Tech -6.7 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Wake Forest 24.4 · Georgia Tech 31.1
Total
proj 55.5
Pittsburgh @ LouisvilleLouisville 66%
Model
Louisville -5.9 · mkt Louisville —
proj Pittsburgh 21.9 · Louisville 27.7
Total
proj 49.6
Stanford @ CaliforniaCalifornia 64%
Model
California -5.0 · mkt California —
proj Stanford 24.8 · California 29.8
Total
proj 54.6
Clemson @ DukeClemson 58%
Model
Clemson -2.7 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 29.7 · Duke 27.0
Total
proj 56.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.