CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — ACC · Week 11 · 9 games
Boston College @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -32.3 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Boston College 11.2 · Notre Dame 43.6
Total
proj 54.8
Syracuse @ NC StateNC State 82%
Model
NC State -13.2 · mkt NC State —
proj Syracuse 21.3 · NC State 34.5
Total
proj 55.8
California @ VirginiaVirginia 80%
Model
Virginia -11.8 · mkt Virginia —
proj California 20.0 · Virginia 31.8
Total
proj 51.9
Georgia Tech @ ClemsonClemson 72%
Model
Clemson -8.5 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Tech 23.5 · Clemson 32.0
Total
proj 55.5
Stanford @ Virginia TechVirginia Tech 63%
Model
Virginia Tech -4.8 · mkt Virginia Tech —
proj Stanford 26.4 · Virginia Tech 31.2
Total
proj 57.6
Florida State @ PittsburghPittsburgh 57%
Model
Pittsburgh -2.3 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Florida State 28.1 · Pittsburgh 30.4
Total
proj 58.6
Louisville @ North CarolinaLouisville 72%
Model
Louisville -8.4 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 33.4 · North Carolina 25.1
Total
proj 58.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.