CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Miami @ Notre Dame1.6 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -4.9 · mkt Notre Dame ~-6.5
LeanMiami +6.5
Best priceMiami +6.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 64%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 10 · 7 games
Miami @ Notre DameNotre Dame 64%
Model
Notre Dame -4.9 · mkt Notre Dame ~-6.5
proj Miami 26.3 · Notre Dame 31.3
leans Miami +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Notre Dame -6.5 -110FanDuel
Miami +6.5 -110FanDuel
Virginia Tech @ SMUSMU 83%
Model
SMU -13.5 · mkt SMU —
proj Virginia Tech 21.2 · SMU 34.7
Total
proj 55.9
Duke @ NC StateNC State 64%
Model
NC State -5.2 · mkt NC State —
proj Duke 24.1 · NC State 29.3
Total
proj 53.4
North Carolina @ UConnUConn 60%
Model
UConn -3.7 · mkt UConn —
proj North Carolina 26.1 · UConn 29.8
Total
proj 55.8
Louisville @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 59%
Model
Georgia Tech -3.1 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Louisville 24.6 · Georgia Tech 27.6
Total
proj 52.2
Florida State @ Boston CollegeFlorida State 77%
Model
Florida State -10.6 · mkt Florida State —
proj Florida State 31.9 · Boston College 21.4
Total
proj 53.3
Clemson @ SyracuseClemson 88%
Model
Clemson -16.9 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 38.2 · Syracuse 21.4
Total
proj 59.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.