CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Clemson @ LSU7.8 pt gap
Model vs mktLSU -3.7 · mkt LSU ~-11.5
LeanClemson +11.5
Best priceClemson +12 -109best of 8
WinLSU 60%
Colorado @ Georgia Tech7.4 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia Tech -14.7 · mkt Georgia Tech ~-7.3
LeanGeorgia Tech -7.3
Best priceGeorgia Tech -7 -106best of 7
WinGeorgia Tech 85%
Louisville @ Ole Miss7.1 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -12.6 · mkt Ole Miss ~-5.5
LeanOle Miss -5.5
Best priceOle Miss -4.5 -110best of 6
WinOle Miss 81%
Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh6.5 pt gap
Model vs mktPittsburgh -9.5 · mkt Pittsburgh ~-16.0
LeanMiami (OH) +16.0
Best priceMiami (OH) +16.5 -106best of 6
WinPittsburgh 75%
Tulane @ Duke6.5 pt gap
Model vs mktDuke -3.5 · mkt Duke ~-10.0
LeanTulane +10.0
Best priceTulane +10.5 -105best of 7
WinDuke 60%
Miami @ Stanford5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktMiami -27.7 · mkt Miami ~-22.2
LeanMiami -22.2
Best priceMiami -21.5 -108best of 6
WinMiami 97%
North Carolina @ TCU5.0 pt gap
Model vs mktTCU -12.0 · mkt TCU ~-7.0
LeanTCU -7.0
Best priceTCU -6.5 -110best of 8
WinTCU 80%
Akron @ Wake Forest4.7 pt gap
Model vs mktWake Forest -17.8 · mkt Wake Forest ~-22.5
LeanAkron +22.5
Best priceAkron +22.5 -112best of 6
WinWake Forest 89%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 1 · 14 games
Clemson @ LSULSU 60%
Model
LSU -3.7 · mkt LSU ~-11.5
proj Clemson 25.3 · LSU 29.0
leans Clemson +11.5
◆ Mid 1
LSU -11 -111LowVig
Clemson +12 -109BetRivers
Colorado @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%
Model
Georgia Tech -14.7 · mkt Georgia Tech ~-7.3
proj Colorado 17.8 · Georgia Tech 32.5
leans Georgia Tech -7.3
◆ Mid 0.5
Georgia Tech -7 -106LowVig
Colorado +7.5 -112DraftKings
Louisville @ Ole MissOle Miss 81%
Model
Ole Miss -12.6 · mkt Ole Miss ~-5.5
proj Louisville 19.5 · Ole Miss 32.1
leans Ole Miss -5.5
◆ Mid 2
Ole Miss -4.5 -110BetOnline
Louisville +6.5 -108DraftKings
Miami (OH) @ PittsburghPittsburgh 75%
Model
Pittsburgh -9.5 · mkt Pittsburgh ~-16.0
proj Miami (OH) 22.2 · Pittsburgh 31.7
leans Miami (OH) +16.0
◆ Mid 1
Pittsburgh -15.5 -108DraftKings
Miami (OH) +16.5 -106LowVig
Tulane @ DukeDuke 60%
Model
Duke -3.5 · mkt Duke ~-10.0
proj Tulane 26.0 · Duke 29.4
leans Tulane +10.0
◆ Mid 1
Duke -9.5 -105DraftKings
Tulane +10.5 -105FanDuel
Miami @ StanfordMiami 97%
Model
Miami -27.7 · mkt Miami ~-22.2
proj Miami 43.0 · Stanford 15.3
leans Miami -22.2
◆ Mid 1.5
Stanford +23 -101LowVig
Miami -21.5 -108DraftKings
North Carolina @ TCUTCU 80%
Model
TCU -12.0 · mkt TCU ~-7.0
proj North Carolina 23.4 · TCU 35.4
leans TCU -7.0
◆ Mid 1
TCU -6.5 -110DraftKings
North Carolina +7.5 -106LowVig
Akron @ Wake ForestWake Forest 89%
Model
Wake Forest -17.8 · mkt Wake Forest ~-22.5
proj Akron 18.5 · Wake Forest 36.3
leans Akron +22.5
◆ Mid 0
Wake Forest -22.5 -108DraftKings
Akron +22.5 -112DraftKings
SMU @ Florida StateFlorida State 56%
Model
Florida State -2.0 · mkt Florida State ~+2.7
proj SMU 28.1 · Florida State 30.1
leans Florida State +2.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Florida State +3 +104LowVig
SMU -2.5 -110DraftKings
UCLA @ CaliforniaCalifornia 61%
Model
California -4.1 · mkt California ~-0.8
proj UCLA 27.3 · California 31.3
leans California -0.8
◆ Mid 1.5
California 0 -106LowVig
UCLA +1.5 -112DraftKings
Hawai'i @ StanfordStanford 53%
Model
Stanford -1.1 · mkt Stanford ~-3.5
proj Hawai'i 26.7 · Stanford 27.8
leans Hawai'i +3.5
◆ Mid 0
Stanford -3.5 -108DraftKings
Hawai'i +3.5 -112DraftKings
NC State @ VirginiaVirginia 69%
Model
Virginia -7.2 · mkt Virginia ~-5.5
proj NC State 22.7 · Virginia 29.9
leans Virginia -5.5
◆ Mid 2
Virginia -4.5 -112DraftKings
NC State +6.5 +104LowVig
Boston College @ CincinnatiCincinnati 73%
Model
Cincinnati -8.7 · mkt Cincinnati ~-7.5
proj Boston College 22.3 · Cincinnati 31.1
leans Cincinnati -7.5
◆ Mid 0
Cincinnati -7.5 -110DraftKings
Boston College +7.5 -110DraftKings
New Mexico State @ Florida StateFlorida State 98%
Model
Florida State -30.8 · mkt Florida State ~-30.3
proj New Mexico State 13.1 · Florida State 43.8
leans Florida State -30.3
◆ Mid 1.5
Florida State -29.5 -108DraftKings
New Mexico State +31 -106LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.