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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 9 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · ACC · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
8.3
Market margin MAE
8.4
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Syracuse @ Georgia TechFinal 16–41
Model
pred Georgia Tech 19.7 · actual Georgia Tech 25
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Stanford @ MiamiFinal 7–42
Model
pred Miami 18.2 · actual Miami 35
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ LouisvilleFinal 24–38
Model
pred Louisville 15.1 · actual Louisville 14
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 11.5 · closer
NC State @ PittsburghFinal 34–53
Model
pred Pittsburgh 8.3 · actual Pittsburgh 19
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 14.0 · closer
California @ Virginia TechFinal 34–42
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.5 · actual Virginia Tech 8
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Virginia @ North CarolinaFinal 17–16
Model
pred Virginia 3.6 · actual Virginia 1
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
SMU @ Wake ForestFinal 12–13
Model
pred SMU 13.0 · actual Wake Forest 1
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.