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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 8 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · ACC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–363%
ATS vs close
6–275%
Model margin MAE
9.6
Market margin MAE
13.0
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ VirginiaFinal 20–22
Model
pred Virginia 10.7 · actual Virginia 2
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 14.5 · closer
North Carolina @ CaliforniaFinal 18–21
Model
pred California 10.2 · actual California 3
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
SMU @ ClemsonFinal 35–24
Model
pred Clemson 7.2 · actual SMU 11
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ MiamiFinal 24–21
Model
pred Miami 4.2 · actual Louisville 3
winner Miami ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Georgia Tech @ DukeFinal 27–18
Model
pred Georgia Tech 3.3 · actual Georgia Tech 9
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 12.5 · closer
UConn @ Boston CollegeFinal 38–23
Model
pred UConn 5.3 · actual UConn 15
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Florida State @ StanfordFinal 13–20
Model
pred Florida State 6.4 · actual Stanford 7
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 24.5 · closer
Pittsburgh @ SyracuseFinal 30–13
Model
pred Pittsburgh 10.1 · actual Pittsburgh 17
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.