CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig Sky
Week 2 backtest · ACC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–464%
ATS vs close
6–555%
Model margin MAE
10.4
Market margin MAE
8.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Troy @ ClemsonFinal 16–27
Model
pred Clemson 30.1 · actual Clemson 11
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +30.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 19.3 · closer
Central Michigan @ PittsburghFinal 17–45
Model
pred Pittsburgh 25.6 · actual Pittsburgh 28
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Stanford @ BYUFinal 3–27
Model
pred BYU 19.3 · actual BYU 24
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ LouisvilleFinal 14–28
Model
pred Louisville 11.1 · actual Louisville 14
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison +15.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 1.3 · mkt closer
UConn @ SyracuseFinal 20–27
Model
pred Syracuse 4.7 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +7.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 0.3 · mkt closer
Baylor @ SMUFinal 48–45
Model
pred SMU 4.4 · actual Baylor 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -2.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ Virginia TechFinal 44–20
Model
pred Virginia Tech 1.9 · actual Vanderbilt 24
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 25.9 · mkt 26.0 · closer
Boston College @ Michigan StateFinal 40–42
Model
pred Boston College 0.5 · actual Michigan State 2
winner Boston College ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ DukeFinal 45–19
Model
pred Illinois 0.9 · actual Illinois 26
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.1 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ CharlotteFinal 20–3
Model
pred North Carolina 3.3 · actual North Carolina 17
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +15.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 1.2 · mkt closer
Virginia @ NC StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred Virginia 3.9 · actual NC State 4
winner Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +2.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 1.2 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.