CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 15 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · ACC · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
13.8
Market margin MAE
10.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Duke @ VirginiaFinal 27–20
Model
pred Virginia 6.8 · actual Duke 7
winner Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.8 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.