CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 14 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · ACC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
10–191%
ATS vs close
8–373%
Model margin MAE
15.3
Market margin MAE
17.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kentucky @ LouisvilleFinal 0–41
Model
pred Louisville 12.2 · actual Louisville 41
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 42.5 · closer
North Carolina @ NC StateFinal 19–42
Model
pred NC State 11.8 · actual NC State 23
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.2 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Florida State @ FloridaFinal 21–40
Model
pred Florida 4.8 · actual Florida 19
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ VirginiaFinal 7–27
Model
pred Virginia 4.2 · actual Virginia 20
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.8 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ DukeFinal 32–49
Model
pred Duke 3.0 · actual Duke 17
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Boston College @ SyracuseFinal 34–12
Model
pred Boston College 2.4 · actual Boston College 22
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Clemson @ South CarolinaFinal 28–14
Model
pred Clemson 3.6 · actual Clemson 14
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Miami @ PittsburghFinal 38–7
Model
pred Miami 7.9 · actual Miami 31
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 23.1 · mkt 24.5 · closer
Georgia @ Georgia TechFinal 16–9
Model
pred Georgia 14.2 · actual Georgia 7
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
SMU @ CaliforniaFinal 35–38
Model
pred SMU 15.3 · actual California 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ StanfordFinal 49–20
Model
pred Notre Dame 23.7 · actual Notre Dame 29
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +32.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.